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Service soars amid uncertainty for air carriers and forwarders

While 2024 saw the industry flying high with air cargo demand outpacing capacity worldwide, it’s uncertain what effect geopolitical events and President Trump’s tariff scheme will have on air cargo and airfreight forwarder operations through the rest of 2025,

According to contributing editor Karen Thuermer’s reporting in last month’s State of Logistics Report coverage, analysts are wrestling with predictions for air cargo volumes due to these complex geopolitical factors. However, global research firm IMARC Group sees a promising future, with the airfreight market expected to grow from $319.4 billion in 2024 to $492.7 billion by 2033—driven by a solid 4.9% CAGR from 2025 to 2033.

“While analysts looking at month-to-month data indicate that air cargo volumes have been on an upward trajectory, figures going forward can change like the wind given fluctuating policies and their impact on global shipping,” says Thuermer. “Overall, the data has been positive for the sector.”

In the meantime, e-commerce and express networks have the biggest impact on boosting air cargo demand. Boeing’s “World Air Cargo Forecast 2024-2043” finds that the entry of new e-commerce market players significantly accelerated air cargo growth in the latter half of 2023 and into 2024—but with the tariff situation, some of those new, low-cost e-tailers may see volumes squelched.

According to Thuermer’s reporting, Boeing maintains that global e-commerce revenues are forecast to rise around 9% per year through 2029, with the fastest growth in the emerging markets of South Asia and Southeast Asia. “Air cargo networks will play an essential role in this expansion,” states Boeing in the forecast.

Air cargo carriers (Bold indicates leader in attribute category)

To say business has been challenging for the freight forwarding sector just may be the understatement of the year. After taking a huge hit to revenue over the course of 2023 through 2024, the world’s top freight forwarders are now applying technology at break-neck speed to help navigate through continued global economic bumps—and get ready for a likely return to growth.

“Given the multiple challenges forwarders are facing, analysts maintain that to stay competitive forwarders must now invest in technology, make acquisitions, and focus on high-margin vertical markets such as pharma and semiconductors to get ready capitalize on the next boom,” adds Thuermer.

Despite these hurdles, the 22 air cargo service providers recognized with Quest for Quality gold in 2025 have shown exceptional adaptability and resilience. Their ability to overcome global disruptions and maintain high service levels over the past year speaks volumes about their commitment to excellence, ensuring continued growth and success in an uncertain world.

Air express carriers (Bold indicates leader in attribute category)

Airfreight forwarders (Bold indicates leader in attribute category)